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Perhaps no other aspect of nonrenewable resources generates as much controversy as attempts at estimating how long any particular resource will last (and the parallel question of how much it will cost). M. K. Hubbert of the U.S. Geological Survey was among the first scientists, in 1975, to place calendar dates on the peak and ultimate production of specific nonrenewable resources. His approach was deceptively simple. If we know the history of the production of any particular resource, Hubbert reasoned, then that history will inevitably follow a logistic type progression; that is, production will rise slowly and reach some peak, after which it will gradually decline. The logistic curve is similar to the well-known bell-shaped curve of statistics. Based on the analysis of U.S. and world oil production, for example, Hubbert predicted that U.S. production would peak in about 1975, while world production would peak in about 2005. His predictions were essentially right on the mark.

The accuracy of Hubbert-type predictions has not led to their universal acceptance. In a now-famous incident in the repertoire of environmental folklore, a group of scientists at Stanford University that included the neo-Malthusian Paul Ehrlich accepted a challenge from Julian Simon at the University of Maryland. The challenge was that the cost of a specific list of metal commodities totaling $10,000 in 1980 would fall by 1990. If the value of the list rose, Simon would pay Ehrlich the difference; if it fell, the reverse. The price of the list was less in 1990 than it was in 1980, and Ehrlich sent Simon a check for the difference. This exercise underscored the danger in making too simple an analysis of the future economic behavior of resources.

The availability of a nonrenewable resource is not just a function of a well-defined quantity divided by a well-known rate of consumption. The quantity of a resource is, in fact, a function of the technology that can be applied to its extraction, while the rate of consumption and demand can change with human whims and changing needs. Ultimately, we can be certain that all resources have limits and cannot be exploited endlessly, but we must always keep in mind the limitations on our ability to predict the future.

References:

1) Hubbert, M. King. 1975. "The Energy Resources of the Earth." Pp. 31-40 in Energy and Power. San Francisco: W. H. Freeman.

2) Lomberg, Bjorn. 2001. The Skeptical Environmentalist: Measuring the Real State of the World. Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press.

3) Meadows, Donella H., Jorgen Randers, and William W. Behrens. 1974. The Limits to Growth: A Report for the Club of Rome's Project on the Predicament of Mankind. New York: New American Library/Signet.

4) Meadows, Donella H., Jorgen Randers, and Dennis L. Meadows. 2004. Limits to Growth: The 30-year Update. White River Junction, VT: Chelsea Green.

5) Skinner, Brian J., ed. 1980. Earth's Energy and Mineral Resources. Los Altos, CA: William Kaufmann.

6) Skinner, Brian J., James R. Craig, and David J. Vaughan. 2001. Resources of the Earth. 3rd ed. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall.

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