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Most people believe that women have a tougher time winning elections than men do. At this writing in October 1996, only 8 percent of governors are female, the U.S. Congress has only 10 percent women members, and even state legislatures, which are relatively easy to access, count just 21 percent women in their ranks ( CAWP, 1996b). These numbers exist in spite of the fact that 53 percent of voters are women. At face value, the numbers indicate that women have a tougher time winning office.

Most people also believe that women who run for office face bias or discrimination. Politics has long been seen as a man's game and those women who try to play it face trouble. Few politically active people cannot tell at least one story about an instance of discrimination against women. Accounts by female candidates of blatant sexism or gender-based questioning add to the belief that women face different treatment because they are women. Given society's treatment of women, the association between politics and masculine activities, and the low numbers of women in office, women do appear to face more obstacles in running for public office, especially at higher levels.

Anecdotes and face value are often deceiving, however. Political scientists know that the incumbency advantage is a primary explanation for the paucity of women in office ( Jacobson, 1992). Women have a tougher time winning elections not because they are women, but because they are not incumbents (Darcy, Welch, and Clark, 1994; Carroll, 1994).

The pipeline is another explanation for the shortfall of elected women. It refers to the fact that experience in one elected office is seen as providing credentials for other offices. Serving in elected or appointed office at a local level creates credentials for county or state office. For this reason, the number of women who serve in local office is a critical indicator of the number of women who will be seen as credible candidates for higher office. Since 1972 women have come to occupy a far greater proportion of local offices, but although the proportion varies widely, it still falls far short of 50 percent in most locales. Hence, the trend is in the right direction, but the pipeline is still not close to full capacity ( Darcy, Welch, and Clark, 1994; Carroll, 1994).

How quickly the proportions of women in local, state, and federal office will increase is unclear. On one hand, a 1994 study conducted by pollster Celinda Lake for the National Women's Political Caucus (NWPC) found that two-thirds of voters believe that women have a tougher time winning elections than men do ( Newman, 1994:3). This belief was based on assumptions that "good old boys" keep women out, women will not vote for women, voters cannot see women as top executives, and female candidates cannot raise enough money ( NWPC, 1994). This suggests that potential female candidates might be reluctant to run for office and proportions of women will not increase dramatically or quickly.

On the other hand, since 1972 the number of women in state legislatures and Congress has charted a steady upward course ( CAWP, 1996b). The pipeline may not yet be full, but such gains create a steady stream of women with a key qualification for higher political office.

Societal attitudes about women continue to change also. Women have entered law, executive positions, and other professions that traditionally create the pool for candidates ( Darcy, Welch, and Clark, 1994). Proponents of the pipeline explanation see a bright future as more women establish themselves. Perhaps more fundamental, election results show that the acceptable routes to office have broadened to include more occupations common to women such as teaching and nursing. Reflecting these changes, the 1992 "year of the woman" in politics captured media attention and furthered the sense of women's forward momentum. But female candidates for Congress in 1992 did not appear overnight. They came from the pipeline of qualified women, which had grown far fuller than most had acknowledged. Realities had changed as well as attitudes...

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