Causation And Correlation Essay ⋆ Political Science Essay Examples ⋆ EssayEmpire

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Political scientists are rarely content to simply describe political phenomena; they seek to explain them. These explanations are built upon correlation and causation between variables of interest. Two variables are correlated if certain values of one variable coincide with certain values of the other variable, or put differently, if change in one variable is associated with change in the other variable. Yet observing a correlation between two variables does not in itself mean that one causes the other. Causality means that values of one variable produce values of the other variable. In other words, an independent variable exerts causal influence on the dependent variable. To demonstrate a causal relationship between independent and dependent variables, one must show (1) that the two variables are correlated, (2) that the independent variable precedes the dependent variable in time, and (3) that the relationship is not spurious—the observed relationship between the two variables is not due to the influence of a third variable. Making a case for causality depends on strong theory that spells out how variables are related and anticipates possible spurious relationships. Careful research design is also important, especially in trying to account for time order of key variables.

Bibliography:

Babbie, Earl R. The Practice of Social Research, 11th ed. Belmont, Calif.: Wadsworth, 2007.
Shively,W. Phillips. The Craft of Political Research, 5th ed. Upper Saddle River, N.J.: Prentice Hall, 2002.